Question 1

What is the ECB Watch tool?

Accepted Answer

ECB Watch is a tool that displays market-implied probabilities for European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions at upcoming Governing Council meetings. It shows the likelihood of rate cuts, holds, or hikes based on market expectations derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) forward rates and current inflation trends.

Question 2

How are ECB rate probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

The probabilities are derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) methodologies, which analyze forward market rates, current inflation data from Eurostat, and ECB policy signals. The model calibrates expected rate paths based on the gap between current rates and market-implied forward rates for each meeting date.

Question 3

What is the current ECB deposit facility rate?

Accepted Answer

The current ECB deposit facility rate is 2.00%. This rate is updated in real-time from official ECB sources and serves as the primary policy rate for the Eurozone.

Question 4

When are the next ECB Governing Council meetings?

Accepted Answer

The ECB Governing Council meets regularly to decide on monetary policy. The next scheduled meetings are: Mar 18, 2026, Apr 29, 2026, Jun 10, 2026.

Question 5

How do ECB rate changes affect my savings?

Accepted Answer

ECB rate changes directly impact savings account yields, money market fund returns, and government bond rates. When the ECB cuts rates, savings yields typically decrease, reducing your real return after inflation. Conversely, rate hikes increase yields. Use our Real Yield Calculator to see how rate changes affect your purchasing power after taxes and inflation.

Question 6

Are these ECB predictions accurate?

Accepted Answer

These are market-implied probabilities based on forward OIS rates and current data, not official ECB forecasts. Markets can be wrong, and the ECB Governing Council makes independent decisions based on evolving economic conditions. These probabilities should be viewed as educated market expectations, not guarantees.

Meeting Date	Probabilities
1 Mar 18, 2026 2026-03-18	90% 10% 2.00% 1.75%
2 Apr 29, 2026 2026-04-29	71% 26% 2.00% 1.75%
3 Jun 10, 2026 2026-06-10	58% 32% 2.00% 1.75%
4 Jul 22, 2026 2026-07-22	25% 47% 26% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75%
5 Sep 10, 2026 2026-09-10	42% 39% 16% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75%
6 Oct 28, 2026 2026-10-28	15% 51% 26% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00%

ECB Watch | Interest Rate Change Probabilities

How to read this chart

Will your savings beat inflation?

Methodology & Explanation

The Role of the ECB & Monetary Policy

Official ECB Resources

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