ECB Watch | Interest Rate Change Probabilities

Market-implied expectations for European Central Bank interest rate changes

Current ECB Rate:
2.00%

How to read this chart

Rate Cut Expected
No Change (Hold)
Rate Hike Expected
Meeting DateProbabilities
1
Mar 18, 2026
2026-03-18
100%
2.00%
2
Apr 29, 2026
2026-04-29
85%
15%
2.00%
1.75%
3
Jun 10, 2026
2026-06-10
70%
28%
2.00%
1.75%
4
Jul 22, 2026
2026-07-22
61%
33%
6%
2.00%
1.75%
5
Sep 10, 2026
2026-09-10
58%
35%
7%
2.00%
1.75%
6
Oct 28, 2026
2026-10-28
57%
36%
8%
2.00%
1.75%

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Methodology & Explanation

This page shows market-implied probabilities for upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions.

Disclaimer: The values above are algorithmically derived models designed to reflect general Eurozone interest rate expectations.

The Role of the ECB & Monetary Policy

The primary objective of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone.

The ECB Governing Council convenes regularly to evaluate economic, monetary, and financial data.