ECB Watch | Interest Rate Change Probabilities
Market-implied expectations for European Central Bank interest rate changes
Current ECB Rate:
2.00%
How to read this chart
Rate Cut Expected
No Change (Hold)
Rate Hike Expected
| Meeting Date | Probabilities |
|---|---|
1 Mar 18, 2026 2026-03-18 | 2.00% |
2 Apr 29, 2026 2026-04-29 | 2.00% 1.75% |
3 Jun 10, 2026 2026-06-10 | 2.00% 1.75% |
4 Jul 22, 2026 2026-07-22 | 2.00% 1.75% |
5 Sep 10, 2026 2026-09-10 | 2.00% 1.75% |
6 Oct 28, 2026 2026-10-28 | 2.00% 1.75% |
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Methodology & Explanation
This page shows market-implied probabilities for upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions.
Disclaimer: The values above are algorithmically derived models designed to reflect general Eurozone interest rate expectations.
The Role of the ECB & Monetary Policy
The primary objective of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone.
The ECB Governing Council convenes regularly to evaluate economic, monetary, and financial data.