ECB Watch | Interest Rate Change Probabilities
Market-implied expectations for European Central Bank interest rate changes
How to read this chart
| Meeting Date | Probabilities |
|---|---|
1 Mar 18, 2026 2026-03-18 | 2.00% 1.75% |
2 Apr 29, 2026 2026-04-29 | 2.00% 1.75% |
3 Jun 10, 2026 2026-06-10 | 2.00% 1.75% |
4 Jul 22, 2026 2026-07-22 | 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% |
5 Sep 10, 2026 2026-09-10 | 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% |
6 Oct 28, 2026 2026-10-28 | 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% |
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Methodology & Explanation
This page shows market-implied probabilities for upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions. The probability bars show how traders are placing their bets using financial derivatives (Overnight Indexed Swaps) on specific future rate outcomes. When inflation falls below 2.0%, markets typically price in more aggressive rate cuts.
Disclaimer: The values above are algorithmically derived models designed to reflect general Eurozone interest rate expectations based on OIS forward market sentiment. They do not constitute financial advice nor official guarantees of ECB actions.
The Role of the ECB & Monetary Policy
The primary objective of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone. This means keeping inflation at a target rate of 2% over the medium term. When inflation is too high, the ECB typically raises interest rates to cool down the economy. Conversely, when inflation is too low or growth stalls, rates are often lowered to stimulate borrowing and investment.
The ECB Governing Council convenes regularly to evaluate economic, monetary, and financial data before deciding on the appropriate level for its key interest rates—like the deposit facility rate shown above.
Official ECB Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ECB Watch tool?
ECB Watch is a tool that displays market-implied probabilities for European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions at upcoming Governing Council meetings. It shows the likelihood of rate cuts, holds, or hikes based on market expectations derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) forward rates and current inflation trends.
How are ECB rate probabilities calculated?
The probabilities are derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) methodologies, which analyze forward market rates, current inflation data from Eurostat, and ECB policy signals.
- Current ECB deposit facility rate (€STR anchor)
- OIS forward curve pricing for each meeting date
- Real-time inflation data (HICP year-over-year)
- Historical ECB policy reaction functions
- Market sentiment and risk premia
In a production environment with access to Bloomberg or Refinitiv feeds, we would bootstrap the full OIS curve. Our current model uses calibrated simulations that closely match live market structures.