ECB Watch Tool — Live ECB Rate Probabilities
Market-implied expectations for European Central Bank interest rate changes
Meeting Date
Probabilities
Oct 29, 2026
Automatic model · daily futures settlements
Published: 2026-10-16 · Source: Eurex FEMP · daily settlement
Zero-volume contracts enter this model. Settlement prices can be indicative; probabilities are model estimates, not measured odds. Contract volume: 0. Open interest: 0.
2.50%
Rate Path Outlook
Automatic model · daily futures settlements. Sep 9, 2027: Most likely model rate 3.25%.
Expected Rate Path
Most likely model rate
How to read this chart
| Meeting Date | Probabilities |
|---|---|
1 Oct 29, 2026 2026-10-29 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.50% |
2 Dec 17, 2026 2026-12-17 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.50% 2.75% |
3 Feb 4, 2027 2027-02-04 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.75% 3.00% |
4 Mar 18, 2027 2027-03-18 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% |
5 Apr 29, 2027 2027-04-29 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% |
6 Jun 10, 2027 2027-06-10 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% |
7 Jul 22, 2027 2027-07-22 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% |
8 Sep 9, 2027 2027-09-09 | Published: 2026-10-16 · Eurex FEMP · daily settlement 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% |
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Methodology & Explanation
ECB Watch automatically estimates meeting probabilities from Eurex ECB-dated €STR futures. Daily settlement prices and the ECB reserve calendar are collected each day. The date shown is the exchange trading date, not the collection date. Where a meeting-dated contract is missing, we fit a smooth rate curve to Eurex three-month €STR futures, respecting their accrual periods and preserving available meeting-dated prices. These estimates assume daily compounding and smooth changes between periods; they are labelled separately. We do not extend beyond the quoted horizon.
These model estimates use daily futures settlements, not live OIS quotes or official ECB forecasts. They assume adjacent 25-basis-point moves, independent meeting increments and a stable rate spread. Risk premia, compounding and limited liquidity can affect the results.
The Role of the ECB & Monetary Policy
The primary objective of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone. This means keeping inflation at a target rate of 2% over the medium term. When inflation is too high, the ECB typically raises interest rates to cool down the economy. Conversely, when inflation is too low or growth stalls, rates are often lowered to stimulate borrowing and investment.
The ECB Governing Council convenes regularly to evaluate economic, monetary, and financial data before deciding on the appropriate level for its key interest rates—like the deposit facility rate shown above.
Official ECB Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ECB Watch tool?
ECB Watch automatically estimates meeting probabilities from Eurex ECB-dated €STR futures. Daily settlement prices and the ECB reserve calendar are collected each day. The date shown is the exchange trading date, not the collection date.
How are ECB rate probabilities calculated?
The implied rate is 100 minus the settlement price. Changes between consecutive reserve periods are split between adjacent 25-basis-point moves and combined across meetings. The current period anchors the deposit-rate/€STR spread. Where a meeting-dated contract is missing, we fit a smooth rate curve to Eurex three-month €STR futures, respecting their accrual periods and preserving available meeting-dated prices. These estimates assume daily compounding and smooth changes between periods; they are labelled separately. We do not extend beyond the quoted horizon.
Data refresh automatically each day. Estimates expire after five days or at the next decision date. They resume when fresh quotes and a valid policy-rate anchor are available. Missing or expired prices are shown as unavailable; they never imply unchanged rates.
What is the current ECB deposit facility rate?
The deposit facility rate is the interest rate banks receive for depositing money with the ECB overnight. It is one of the three key ECB interest rates and directly influences money market rates across the euro area.
When are the next ECB Governing Council meetings?
The ECB Governing Council meets regularly to decide on monetary policy. The next scheduled meetings are:
How do ECB rate changes affect my savings?
ECB rate changes directly impact savings account yields, money market fund returns, and government bond rates:
Savings yields decrease, reducing your real return after inflation. Borrowing becomes cheaper.
Savings yields increase, improving returns. Borrowing becomes more expensive.
Use our Real Yield Calculator to see how rate changes affect your purchasing power after taxes and inflation.
Are these ECB predictions accurate?
These model estimates use daily futures settlements, not live OIS quotes or official ECB forecasts. They assume adjacent 25-basis-point moves, independent meeting increments and a stable rate spread. Risk premia, compounding and limited liquidity can affect the results.
Markets can be wrong, and the ECB Governing Council makes independent decisions based on evolving economic conditions including:
- Inflation trajectory and expectations
- Economic growth projections
- Employment and wage dynamics
- Financial stability considerations
- Global economic developments
These probabilities should be viewed as educated market expectations, not guarantees. Always consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.