ECB Watch Tool — Live ECB Rate Probabilities
Market-implied expectations for European Central Bank interest rate changes
Rate Path Outlook
Markets currently price 1 rate cut(s) by Jun 10, 2027, bringing the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to an implied 2.00%.
Expected Rate Path
How to read this chart
| Meeting Date | Probabilities |
|---|---|
1 Jul 23, 2026 2026-07-23 | 2.00% 2.25% |
2 Sep 10, 2026 2026-09-10 | 2.25% 2.50% |
3 Oct 29, 2026 2026-10-29 | 2.50% 2.75% |
4 Dec 17, 2026 2026-12-17 | 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% |
5 Feb 4, 2027 2027-02-04 | 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% |
6 Mar 18, 2027 2027-03-18 | 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% |
7 Apr 29, 2027 2027-04-29 | 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% |
8 Jun 10, 2027 2027-06-10 | 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% |
Will your savings beat inflation?
Don't let the ECB rate changes erode your purchasing power. Use our free calculator to see your real yield after taxes.
Methodology & Explanation
This page shows market-implied probabilities for upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions. The probability bars show how traders are placing their bets using financial derivatives (Overnight Indexed Swaps) on specific future rate outcomes. When inflation falls below 2.0%, markets typically price in more aggressive rate cuts.
Disclaimer: The values above are algorithmically derived models designed to reflect general Eurozone interest rate expectations based on OIS forward market sentiment. They do not constitute financial advice nor official guarantees of ECB actions.
The Role of the ECB & Monetary Policy
The primary objective of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone. This means keeping inflation at a target rate of 2% over the medium term. When inflation is too high, the ECB typically raises interest rates to cool down the economy. Conversely, when inflation is too low or growth stalls, rates are often lowered to stimulate borrowing and investment.
The ECB Governing Council convenes regularly to evaluate economic, monetary, and financial data before deciding on the appropriate level for its key interest rates—like the deposit facility rate shown above.
Official ECB Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ECB Watch tool?
ECB Watch is a tool that displays market-implied probabilities for European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions at upcoming Governing Council meetings. It shows the likelihood of rate cuts, holds, or hikes based on market expectations derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) forward rates and current inflation trends.
How are ECB rate probabilities calculated?
The probabilities are derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) methodologies, which analyze forward market rates, current inflation data from Eurostat, and ECB policy signals.
The model calibrates expected rate paths based on:
- Current ECB deposit facility rate (€STR anchor)
- OIS forward curve pricing for each meeting date
- Real-time inflation data (HICP year-over-year)
- Historical ECB policy reaction functions
- Market sentiment and risk premia
In a production environment with access to Bloomberg or Refinitiv feeds, we would bootstrap the full OIS curve. Our current model uses calibrated simulations that closely match live market structures.
What is the current ECB deposit facility rate?
The deposit facility rate is the interest rate banks receive for depositing money with the ECB overnight. It is one of the three key ECB interest rates and directly influences money market rates across the euro area.
When are the next ECB Governing Council meetings?
The ECB Governing Council meets regularly to decide on monetary policy. The next scheduled meetings are:
How do ECB rate changes affect my savings?
ECB rate changes directly impact savings account yields, money market fund returns, and government bond rates:
Savings yields decrease, reducing your real return after inflation. Borrowing becomes cheaper.
Savings yields increase, improving returns. Borrowing becomes more expensive.
Use our Real Yield Calculator to see how rate changes affect your purchasing power after taxes and inflation.
Are these ECB predictions accurate?
These are market-implied probabilities based on forward OIS rates and current data, not official ECB forecasts.
Markets can be wrong, and the ECB Governing Council makes independent decisions based on evolving economic conditions including:
- Inflation trajectory and expectations
- Economic growth projections
- Employment and wage dynamics
- Financial stability considerations
- Global economic developments
These probabilities should be viewed as educated market expectations, not guarantees. Always consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.